US-China tech war expected to intensify regardless of presidential election outcome

The US-China technology conflict is poised to escalate, regardless of whether Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris wins the upcoming US presidential election on November 5. Both candidates are expected to pursue measures aimed at curbing China’s technological advances, though their approaches may differ, according to analysts and former government officials.
While Trump is likely to adopt a more aggressive stance, broadly applying tariffs and imposing swift penalties, Harris would likely focus on targeted and coordinated efforts, particularly in restricting technology that could bolster China’s military and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. Both strategies aim to prevent US technology and capital from supporting China’s tech industry, especially in the areas of chip production and AI development.
In her campaign, Harris has pledged to ensure that “America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century,” signalling that her administration would likely continue the Biden administration’s current strategy of working closely with allies to impose export controls on China. By contrast, Trump has advocated for a tougher, unilateral approach, including imposing tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports and up to 60 percent on Chinese products specifically.
Experts suggest that new measures could include curbs on Chinese imports, such as smart cars and AI-powered devices, as well as stricter export controls on US chipmaking tools and advanced AI chips. In recent months, the US government has introduced rules to keep connected cars with Chinese components off American roads, and earlier this year, it passed legislation requiring TikTok to be sold by its Chinese parent or face a ban in the US
Trump’s potential return to office could see a more immediate expansion of the Commerce Department’s entity list, which restricts exports to blacklisted companies, according to Nazak Nikakhtar, a former Commerce Department official under Trump. Trump added China’s Huawei Technologies to the list during his first term and may expand restrictions to cover affiliates and business partners of listed companies.
While Trump’s approach is expected to be more forceful, focusing on rapid action and punitive measures for non-compliant allies, Harris would likely continue a more diplomatic strategy, working with international partners to implement export controls and tariffs on specific products, such as semiconductors.
Both candidates’ strategies reflect growing bipartisan consensus in the US on the need to curb China’s technological rise. However, the specifics of how they would achieve this vary, with experts predicting that Trump’s policies would be more sweeping, whereas Harris would take a more measured approach.
China, in response, has vowed to safeguard its interests. In the past, it has targeted US companies such as Micron Technology following U.S. export controls on chips and chipmaking equipment.
The outcome of the US election will determine whether a sledgehammer or scalpel is used in this intensifying technology rivalry, but the consensus remains that the US-China tech war is far from cooling down.